A medida que avanzan las fases de la “cuarentena inteligente”, el mercado crediticio muestra señales de un mayor dinamismo. Los bancos de plaza otorgaron préstamos por valor de G. 95,1 billones hasta junio de 2020, con un incremento de 7,9% respecto al mismo periodo del año anterior y a un ritmo superior al observado en los meses de mayor confinamiento de la población, según últimos registros del Banco Central del Paraguay (BCP).
En abril pasado, la cartera de crédito de los bancos había reportado apenas un 4,2% de crecimiento interanual (comparativo con mismo mes del año previo), en momentos en que las restricciones impuestas para frenar la propagación del COVID-19 eran más intensas. En mayo, este indicador aumentó levemente, a 5,3%, y en junio – mes en que entró en vigencia la fase 3 y se permitió la apertura de comercios y restaurantes – se acercó al nivel de 8,9% en que se encontraba en el sexto mes del 2019.
En cuanto a la variación mensual, la del mes pasado experimentó la suba más pronunciada desde el último trimestre del 2019, al arrojar un aumento de 1,6% respecto a mayo. En abril también se registró el resultado más desalentador en este cálculo, con una caída de -1,1%.
La morosidad, por su parte, retrocedió a 3,1% en junio de 2020, luego de que se incrementara a 3,3% en abril y mayo. En este escenario, las ganancias de los bancos cerraron el primer semestre del año en G. 1,1 billones, con una reducción de -22,1% desde los G. 1,5 billones de utilidades a distribuir que reunieron a junio de 2019.
Mayor cautela en el mercado. Mientras tanto, los depósitos captados por las entidades bancarias continúan con un vigoroso crecimiento, al doble del ritmo en que están aumentando los créditos. Hasta junio del 2020, estos recursos sumaron a G. 110,7 billones, en 16,1% por encima de lo registrado un año atrás; en junio del 2019, esta variación se encontraba en 8,9%.
Este mayor aumento de depósitos que de créditos coincide con el contexto de menores gastos e inversión que se construye alrededor de la merma de la actividad económica que acompaña a la situación de emergencia sanitaria. Las personas y las empresas prefieren ahorrar su dinero, y esperar a un momento en que se apacigüe la incertidumbre para retomar sus proyectos y consumir más.
En sus intentos por revertir este fenómeno y promover un mayor dinamismo del mercado, el BCP recortó en cinco ocasiones la tasa de interés de referencia, en lo que va del corriente año y desde que se inició la pandemia. De esta manera, la tasa de política monetaria – también conocida como tasa “overnight” o de un día – se redujo de 4% a 0,75% entre marzo y junio últimos, luego de que ya retrocediera desde el nivel de 5,25% en que había arrancado el 2019.
Lea también: Créditos de consumo encabezan reducción de tasas de interés, según BCP
Conexión entre las finanzas y la actividad económica. Carlos Fernández Valdovinos, ex presidente del BCP, recuerda que el sistema financiero generalmente tarda en recuperar la confianza cuando se instauran periodos de crisis. “Se ve primero una vuelta de la actividad económica, y después recién se ve al sector financiero dinámico y empieza a apoyar con mayor crédito”, explica.
Considera que los actuales tiempos de emergencia no serán la excepción. “Se tendrá que llegar a una recuperación económica casi sin créditos y después va a ser catch up del sector bancario hacia los mayores niveles de actividad económica que se vean en unos meses. Ya está sobre la mesa, ya se le puso la medicina al paciente, ahora hay que esperar a que esa medicina actúe sobre el cuerpo enfermo”, agrega, respecto a los resultados que vayan a tener las medidas de inyección de liquidez del BCP.
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